* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 47 46 43 39 34 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 47 46 43 39 34 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 45 44 41 37 33 28 24 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 4 5 6 10 17 16 19 23 22 23 21 27 29 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 4 1 -2 -1 0 1 1 1 1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 82 345 294 237 246 244 233 259 272 311 322 315 276 263 260 269 256 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.8 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 127 128 128 128 125 124 122 122 125 129 128 127 130 132 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 54 54 54 52 53 50 47 46 39 39 38 40 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 11 1 0 -3 0 6 18 12 20 13 22 16 24 13 9 6 3 200 MB DIV 9 12 1 -4 -11 0 -13 -21 -24 -26 -64 -43 -24 8 -4 0 1 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 0 1 2 1 3 4 3 0 0 0 2 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 1701 1761 1823 1852 1882 1934 1973 2013 2053 2093 2176 2279 2146 2013 1884 1756 1633 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.9 126.8 127.5 128.1 129.0 129.6 130.1 130.6 131.1 132.1 133.5 134.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 5 4 2 2 2 4 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 1 6 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -22. -28. -33. -36. -36. -37. -37. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.1 124.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 4.8% 4.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 8.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/08/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##