* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP142013 10/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 62 64 65 64 60 56 49 42 37 31 29 27 24 21 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 62 64 65 64 60 56 49 42 37 31 29 27 24 21 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 63 64 63 60 55 48 41 34 28 24 21 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 5 3 4 4 9 9 10 15 22 24 26 27 30 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 7 6 5 3 7 3 -1 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 51 51 54 295 339 267 274 258 270 274 297 311 313 305 298 271 257 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.0 26.4 26.2 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 134 127 125 128 129 127 125 124 121 121 124 127 127 125 127 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 56 54 56 56 54 57 56 56 55 52 45 41 37 34 35 33 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 17 16 17 16 16 16 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 29 22 7 5 9 9 22 19 22 26 38 34 36 21 17 200 MB DIV 56 53 58 44 34 11 17 21 36 -5 -30 -40 -28 -41 -40 0 -7 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 3 4 2 3 3 6 6 4 LAND (KM) 1584 1631 1684 1735 1790 1863 1920 1965 1997 2028 2053 2093 2161 2270 2141 1964 1777 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.9 123.0 124.0 125.0 125.9 127.5 128.6 129.3 129.8 130.2 130.6 131.1 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 5 3 2 2 2 3 6 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 4 1 0 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 10. 6. -1. -8. -13. -19. -21. -23. -26. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.8 121.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 27.4% 23.0% 17.2% 11.4% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 19.6% 18.3% 8.6% 3.6% 5.5% 2.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.9% 15.9% 13.9% 8.6% 5.0% 6.6% 0.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142013 NARDA 10/07/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##