* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 43 48 52 53 51 44 37 36 32 27 22 19 17 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 43 48 51 36 30 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 39 39 40 40 31 28 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 23 24 25 27 32 44 49 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 2 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 265 258 266 266 252 254 226 211 199 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.5 28.1 27.9 24.6 24.0 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 151 143 139 137 105 101 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 131 129 129 123 121 122 94 90 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 2 3 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 45 43 44 48 51 50 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 12 14 16 16 17 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -56 -64 -92 -70 -27 10 63 111 132 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 27 54 45 52 40 36 53 84 48 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 7 9 9 1 3 12 6 -13 -39 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 434 367 302 242 181 58 38 -155 -243 -242 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.5 28.6 30.0 31.7 33.8 36.3 38.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.3 90.5 90.6 90.7 90.1 88.5 86.0 83.0 79.6 76.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 8 12 15 18 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 40 38 38 37 23 31 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -31. -34. -38. -42. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 4. 4. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -2. 3. 7. 8. 6. -1. -8. -9. -13. -18. -23. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.2 90.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 6.6% 4.3% 3.6% 3.1% 5.9% 5.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/04/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 42 41 43 48 51 36 30 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 44 49 52 37 31 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 42 47 50 35 29 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 42 45 30 24 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT