* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122013 10/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 53 53 53 52 57 60 60 51 44 42 38 33 30 27 24 V (KT) LAND 55 55 53 53 53 52 57 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 55 55 55 55 41 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 29 24 22 28 28 33 40 49 52 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 1 -1 -3 -5 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 265 272 259 256 264 242 244 221 219 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.5 24.1 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 158 154 150 146 144 136 132 100 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 140 134 130 125 124 118 115 89 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 1 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 54 53 53 49 43 46 53 54 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 11 13 13 13 17 19 20 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -54 -70 -64 -71 -74 -23 32 57 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 17 8 18 44 66 59 58 64 72 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 12 8 6 10 7 4 11 2 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 257 354 407 326 246 89 71 -100 -336 -301 -250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.6 25.4 26.2 26.9 28.3 29.7 31.3 33.1 35.1 37.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.8 89.2 89.6 89.7 89.8 89.5 88.4 86.8 84.6 81.9 79.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 10 12 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 34 41 41 37 30 36 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -31. -34. -36. -39. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 1. 4. 5. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. 2. 5. 5. -4. -11. -13. -17. -22. -25. -28. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.8 88.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 10.4% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 7.0% 5.3% Logistic: 1.3% 3.2% 1.4% 1.7% 0.7% 1.5% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.6% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 3.0% 2.7% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122013 KAREN 10/04/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122013 KAREN 10/04/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 53 53 53 52 57 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 52 52 52 51 56 40 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 50 55 39 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 44 49 33 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT