* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 45 49 52 53 48 47 47 49 49 50 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 45 49 52 53 48 47 47 49 49 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 38 42 46 48 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 7 6 12 19 20 19 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 2 -1 -6 -2 -4 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 324 344 343 296 278 252 254 249 251 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.4 25.2 24.7 23.2 21.9 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 113 114 112 109 107 104 94 87 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 98 99 97 95 93 91 83 78 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.3 -56.4 -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 -56.3 -56.8 -57.0 -56.9 -56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 41 41 42 44 42 41 40 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -80 -85 -85 -83 -75 -55 -59 -59 -65 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -4 -10 -16 0 15 10 18 25 21 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 5 9 9 10 12 1 6 13 14 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2161 2132 2105 2085 2071 2095 2137 1966 1808 1589 1336 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.5 30.0 30.6 31.2 32.2 33.3 34.5 35.7 37.1 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.9 42.3 41.7 40.7 39.8 37.5 35.1 32.4 29.8 27.2 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -9. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 13. 12. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.0 42.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/02/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.18 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 10.8% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 5.2% 5.5% 2.4% 0.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.3% 4.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/02/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/02/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 38 41 45 49 52 53 48 47 47 49 49 50 50 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 39 43 47 50 51 46 45 45 47 47 48 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 40 44 47 48 43 42 42 44 44 45 45 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 33 37 40 41 36 35 35 37 37 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT