* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 52 53 57 58 57 56 53 52 52 52 49 50 50 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 52 53 57 58 57 56 53 52 52 52 49 50 50 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 52 53 54 56 57 56 54 52 51 51 49 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 17 14 16 14 8 12 15 19 25 25 24 27 34 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 0 0 1 0 -4 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 306 300 295 297 277 314 284 275 260 264 252 251 236 251 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.5 25.3 25.4 25.5 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 127 127 127 129 128 126 125 121 118 108 108 109 102 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 106 107 108 107 109 107 105 105 103 102 93 93 93 87 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -56.0 -55.4 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.9 -56.5 -57.4 -57.5 -57.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 37 35 39 40 40 41 39 36 36 38 38 37 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 12 11 11 10 10 10 11 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -12 -14 -19 -22 -24 -18 -4 -8 -2 -18 -45 -41 -24 -23 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -58 -46 -12 0 -16 8 -15 -4 -5 -4 -4 5 24 8 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 5 2 3 0 -2 -7 -2 -3 -6 -6 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2315 2317 2320 2301 2283 2216 2150 2085 2031 1975 1922 1880 1872 1892 1923 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.7 29.3 30.1 31.1 32.3 33.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.6 43.9 44.1 44.6 45.0 45.9 46.4 46.4 46.0 45.0 43.5 41.6 39.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 4 3 3 5 7 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 14 15 22 25 12 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. 7. 7. 7. 4. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.3 43.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 4.0% 4.6% 2.3% 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 5.6% 4.7% 0.8% 0.1% 3.6% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/01/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 52 53 57 58 57 56 53 52 52 52 49 50 50 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 49 50 54 55 54 53 50 49 49 49 46 47 47 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 45 49 50 49 48 45 44 44 44 41 42 42 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 41 42 41 40 37 36 36 36 33 34 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT