* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 09/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 41 42 44 46 49 50 50 50 49 46 45 45 44 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 41 42 44 46 49 50 50 50 49 46 45 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 40 41 40 41 43 45 48 51 53 51 48 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 23 20 16 22 12 14 11 13 16 18 27 31 31 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 3 4 -2 -1 -5 -7 -4 -3 -5 -3 -6 -3 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 308 310 320 327 314 313 305 316 295 284 242 232 215 225 220 246 249 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.6 26.5 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 125 124 125 128 129 130 129 130 129 131 119 109 108 109 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 105 104 104 106 109 110 110 107 109 110 112 102 93 92 91 92 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -56.4 -56.5 -57.0 -57.2 -57.6 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 49 45 42 39 38 38 40 43 46 51 55 57 54 47 42 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -42 -27 -20 -11 -24 -29 -39 -41 -37 -47 -61 -42 -43 -42 -49 -60 200 MB DIV -1 -15 -62 -53 -1 -15 4 -6 -2 4 32 31 40 15 -1 4 9 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -2 -2 0 -2 0 1 0 1 -1 0 -5 0 -4 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 2267 2286 2305 2310 2287 2176 2088 2032 2032 2041 1971 1900 1852 1825 1849 1898 1954 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.7 29.5 30.5 31.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.2 45.1 45.0 45.2 45.4 46.6 47.7 48.6 48.9 48.5 47.6 46.1 44.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 4 5 5 4 3 4 7 9 10 9 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 16 30 20 13 12 11 9 9 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 11. 10. 10. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.3 45.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 09/30/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.85 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 11.3% 8.0% 6.2% 5.1% 7.7% 8.8% 13.2% Logistic: 4.5% 5.9% 4.7% 1.0% 0.2% 2.0% 2.9% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.8% 4.3% 2.4% 1.8% 3.2% 3.9% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 09/30/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 09/30/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 39 41 42 44 46 49 50 50 50 49 46 45 45 44 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 39 41 43 46 47 47 47 46 43 42 42 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 35 37 39 42 43 43 43 42 39 38 38 37 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 28 30 32 35 36 36 36 35 32 31 31 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT