* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 09/30/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 43 46 49 52 53 54 53 52 51 50 45 40 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 43 46 49 52 53 54 53 52 51 50 45 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 43 42 42 44 46 48 51 51 51 49 46 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 15 20 20 18 17 13 12 14 16 22 25 36 42 57 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 3 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -5 -3 -5 -7 -8 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 300 298 306 313 319 301 318 293 306 282 258 255 246 240 229 227 240 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 26.9 25.4 25.4 25.0 24.1 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 122 122 122 125 131 130 130 130 131 123 109 110 106 100 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 103 102 102 103 106 112 110 110 110 112 106 95 95 93 87 83 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -55.5 -55.6 -56.2 -56.8 -56.9 -57.4 -57.2 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 52 51 46 44 41 38 40 44 45 48 50 47 47 44 46 39 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -76 -57 -42 -30 -21 -8 -19 -33 -43 -43 -53 -54 -44 -44 -4 7 27 200 MB DIV -30 -2 -27 -53 -44 0 4 0 5 -16 21 18 13 13 37 31 -6 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -7 -5 -5 -3 -4 0 0 0 -1 -4 0 -1 -18 -23 -32 LAND (KM) 2204 2220 2237 2226 2216 2165 2089 2043 2056 2026 1920 1839 1785 1764 1780 1832 1910 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.5 27.1 27.9 28.9 30.1 31.3 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.3 46.1 45.9 45.9 46.0 46.5 47.4 48.2 48.5 48.1 47.0 45.3 43.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 2 2 3 4 4 4 6 9 10 12 13 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 21 21 22 30 28 15 13 11 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 13. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -21. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15. 10. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.8 46.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 09/30/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 13.2% Logistic: 7.3% 10.1% 8.0% 1.6% 0.4% 3.6% 4.8% 5.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 3.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 3.7% 1.6% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 09/30/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 09/30/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 41 43 46 49 52 53 54 53 52 51 50 45 40 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 40 43 46 49 50 51 50 49 48 47 42 37 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 38 41 44 45 46 45 44 43 42 37 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 31 34 37 38 39 38 37 36 35 30 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT