* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112013 09/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 43 45 48 49 52 55 58 56 54 52 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 43 45 48 49 52 55 58 56 54 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 37 37 38 41 45 49 52 52 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 16 17 17 24 18 21 15 18 11 11 10 14 22 25 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 221 279 316 329 335 329 318 318 296 285 266 238 218 201 201 222 220 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.0 25.4 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 130 129 128 128 128 128 129 131 132 132 123 113 108 110 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 112 110 109 106 107 106 106 107 110 112 112 105 96 93 94 91 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.8 -55.8 -56.1 -56.1 -56.5 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 6 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 53 52 45 41 39 43 48 53 52 50 50 45 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -103 -91 -83 -65 -55 -45 -35 -36 -33 -43 -40 -47 -60 -59 -44 -29 -1 200 MB DIV 4 -8 -37 -32 -7 -34 -13 -7 27 -7 23 15 26 29 35 12 17 700-850 TADV -3 -4 0 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 5 1 5 8 8 1 0 -4 LAND (KM) 2047 2104 2161 2191 2220 2207 2170 2152 2147 2155 2093 2019 1969 1955 1950 1984 2024 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.9 28.6 29.6 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.5 47.0 46.6 46.3 46.4 46.8 47.0 47.2 47.1 46.5 45.3 43.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 6 8 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 29 31 30 30 30 29 26 25 18 10 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -1. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 22. 25. 28. 26. 24. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.8 48.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.77 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 11.1% 7.6% 5.5% 4.5% 7.4% 0.0% 12.0% Logistic: 3.9% 9.0% 5.5% 1.2% 0.3% 2.3% 3.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.8% 4.4% 2.2% 1.6% 3.2% 1.0% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 ELEVEN 09/29/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 40 43 45 48 49 52 55 58 56 54 52 52 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 38 41 43 46 47 50 53 56 54 52 50 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 37 39 42 43 46 49 52 50 48 46 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 29 31 34 35 38 41 44 42 40 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT