* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/18/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 47 55 42 41 39 36 32 26 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 47 55 42 41 39 36 32 26 23 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 39 46 53 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 13 17 16 15 16 23 52 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -4 -5 -3 3 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 337 343 342 328 287 229 196 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.9 26.5 25.6 23.9 19.8 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 120 123 120 114 104 86 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 101 102 105 103 101 96 81 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.9 -56.9 -56.8 -56.5 -55.7 -55.4 -55.2 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.6 -0.8 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 53 57 57 55 45 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 14 12 11 13 20 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -17 -12 -2 11 64 83 78 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -9 -6 25 38 69 78 77 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 9 2 4 20 13 -55 -113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1873 1806 1739 1658 1581 1454 1436 1501 913 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.2 32.9 33.9 34.9 37.4 41.8 47.8 53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.7 43.6 43.5 43.1 42.6 40.7 36.4 30.2 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 11 13 21 32 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 8 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 1. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. -35. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 20. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -9. -12. -12. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.5 43.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.1% 7.7% 6.1% 5.1% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 6.7% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.9% 3.9% 2.5% 1.8% 0.6% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 38 41 47 55 42 41 39 36 32 26 23 23 23 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 39 45 53 40 39 37 34 30 24 21 21 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 42 50 37 36 34 31 27 21 18 18 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 35 43 30 29 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT