* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/18/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 41 43 48 52 54 54 51 55 59 62 66 70 74 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 41 43 48 52 43 42 40 43 47 51 55 59 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 43 46 49 42 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 7 8 6 4 6 7 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 -1 -4 -7 -2 -5 -4 -7 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 214 159 179 195 184 226 89 146 121 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.3 29.8 28.9 28.0 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 166 166 167 165 164 159 150 141 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 10 7 9 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 60 56 53 46 46 45 46 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 5 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 55 64 54 45 27 13 14 27 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 5 32 28 12 16 6 6 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 105 109 111 101 96 78 46 16 -29 14 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.5 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.3 24.2 23.9 23.6 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.1 108.4 108.7 108.9 109.3 109.7 110.0 110.3 110.7 111.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 18 10 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 30. 32. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 35. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.2 107.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 29.0% 21.7% 16.5% 11.7% 16.5% 37.9% 54.8% Logistic: 6.1% 16.2% 10.6% 4.5% 2.9% 2.1% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% Consensus: 6.1% 16.0% 10.9% 7.0% 4.9% 6.2% 12.8% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/18/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##