* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 44 47 51 54 54 41 39 36 30 27 26 25 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 44 47 51 54 54 41 39 36 30 27 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 35 36 37 40 43 47 52 54 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 12 17 15 18 17 38 59 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 -5 0 -4 1 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 305 306 324 330 332 298 241 223 190 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.2 24.8 23.9 16.3 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 121 121 122 118 107 103 77 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 102 102 101 101 104 102 95 93 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.6 -56.5 -56.6 -56.8 -56.3 -56.2 -55.9 -54.0 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 49 53 52 54 60 60 53 42 41 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 16 15 14 13 13 15 18 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 4 13 6 1 12 26 30 65 133 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 -9 -10 -20 -12 31 39 64 55 78 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 2 1 0 5 -1 1 -171 -186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1988 1926 1864 1803 1743 1615 1503 1422 1476 1408 959 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.3 32.9 34.5 36.7 39.7 43.8 49.1 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.1 43.3 43.4 43.4 43.4 42.7 40.9 38.4 34.6 29.7 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 11 16 22 28 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 5 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -5. -16. -21. -26. -32. -36. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 19. 6. 4. 1. -5. -8. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.6 43.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 11.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.2% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/18/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 40 44 47 51 54 54 41 39 36 30 27 26 25 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 42 45 49 52 52 39 37 34 28 25 24 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 38 41 45 48 48 35 33 30 24 21 20 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 33 37 40 40 27 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT