* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/16/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 44 45 46 45 47 47 51 53 48 37 22 22 24 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 44 45 46 45 47 47 51 53 48 37 22 22 24 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 43 43 44 46 48 52 59 64 61 51 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 23 19 15 13 20 18 17 8 14 15 31 60 63 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -3 1 -1 11 30 28 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 277 288 311 320 316 318 314 272 276 207 202 198 181 202 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.2 26.8 25.8 24.0 19.6 14.1 12.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 124 125 126 127 129 129 130 127 124 116 103 84 74 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 107 107 107 107 108 107 109 108 108 103 93 78 71 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.9 -56.2 -56.4 -56.3 -56.1 -55.7 -55.9 -56.2 -55.9 -55.8 -56.5 -54.1 -52.0 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 49 50 54 57 60 60 56 46 36 34 47 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 13 13 11 11 10 11 13 14 16 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 5 17 10 4 4 6 16 32 20 39 64 177 161 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 -13 -11 1 13 -2 16 4 17 53 64 50 38 32 56 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 -14 -217 -296 -108 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2335 2257 2178 2113 2048 1948 1839 1748 1650 1559 1496 1556 1509 976 706 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.9 28.5 29.0 29.5 30.3 31.3 32.3 33.7 35.6 38.5 42.4 47.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.6 43.9 44.3 44.7 45.2 45.3 44.9 43.7 41.7 38.6 34.4 29.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 11 16 22 27 30 30 29 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 12 10 9 9 11 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -13. -24. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -10. -8. -7. -5. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 11. 13. 8. -3. -18. -18. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.2 43.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/16/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 11.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.4% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/16/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/16/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 44 44 45 46 45 47 47 51 53 48 37 22 22 24 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 42 43 44 43 45 45 49 51 46 35 20 20 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 39 40 39 41 41 45 47 42 31 16 16 18 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 32 31 33 33 37 39 34 23 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT