* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/16/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 60 58 58 57 57 58 58 57 56 54 51 49 49 50 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 47 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 62 48 39 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 18 12 15 11 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 -1 -4 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 283 260 267 286 342 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 143 138 134 133 133 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 125 121 118 116 117 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 11 12 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 79 78 79 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 10 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 83 89 96 97 89 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 77 70 93 50 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 0 -2 -2 0 -1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 102 51 0 -51 -101 -185 -291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.5 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.3 97.8 98.3 98.8 99.7 100.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 24 18 16 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.2 96.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/16/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.7% 10.1% 8.0% 7.5% 10.2% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 5.4% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 2.1% 3.1% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 35.9% Consensus: 2.3% 6.7% 4.2% 3.0% 2.7% 4.1% 4.2% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/16/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/16/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 47 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 63 47 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 65 62 61 45 37 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 47 39 36 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT