* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/15/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 76 75 71 63 61 60 57 54 52 50 48 47 47 46 V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 76 75 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 80 79 78 57 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 22 20 25 19 5 9 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 1 3 1 1 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 291 284 281 281 233 309 336 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 151 146 135 134 133 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 134 133 128 118 116 115 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -50.7 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 80 80 80 83 83 84 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 14 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 62 71 83 88 105 114 102 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 95 80 110 113 104 46 32 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 0 -5 -4 -3 -8 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 217 188 174 118 61 -51 -115 -156 -212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.0 22.7 22.3 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.7 96.1 96.6 97.2 98.3 99.0 99.4 99.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 47 47 41 27 17 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -6. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -12. -14. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. -27. -28. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.2 95.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.3% 25.7% 17.6% 10.2% 9.5% 11.5% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 16.2% 7.0% 4.3% 2.4% 5.7% 4.2% 7.1% Bayesian: 7.6% 3.4% 1.0% 3.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 21.5% Consensus: 11.4% 15.1% 8.5% 6.1% 4.2% 6.0% 4.9% 9.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/15/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/15/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 5( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 77 76 75 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 75 74 74 73 72 53 34 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 69 50 31 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 45 26 19 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT