* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/15/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 58 57 55 54 52 52 54 57 59 61 62 63 63 66 71 V (KT) LAND 55 58 58 48 41 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 49 42 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 10 9 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 7 5 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 85 107 116 130 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.6 26.3 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 136 129 126 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.3 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 80 80 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 12 11 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 104 102 118 139 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 87 83 103 106 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -7 -3 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 145 73 22 -11 -44 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.5 102.8 103.2 103.6 104.0 104.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 13 6 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 11. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.7 102.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/15/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 26.0% 19.4% 14.5% 9.4% 12.6% 12.7% 9.6% Logistic: 16.8% 39.2% 24.3% 15.7% 3.0% 10.1% 3.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 2.6% 8.5% 6.8% 3.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 10.9% 24.5% 16.8% 11.1% 4.2% 7.8% 5.5% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/15/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##