* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP132013 09/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 46 46 46 45 46 48 51 53 56 57 58 58 61 66 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 41 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 14 12 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 1 1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 85 102 105 114 137 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.6 26.8 26.1 26.3 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 139 130 123 125 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 81 81 82 81 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 11 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 96 107 102 99 117 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 128 121 101 83 102 82 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -10 -1 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 160 100 35 -7 -38 -95 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.9 20.0 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.7 102.9 103.2 103.5 104.3 105.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 15 8 2 0 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 16. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.5 102.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 26.5% 18.9% 13.6% 9.3% 12.6% 15.7% 12.3% Logistic: 15.1% 44.3% 25.7% 15.9% 7.4% 15.8% 5.7% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.4% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 9.4% 24.7% 15.7% 10.2% 5.6% 9.5% 7.2% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132013 MANUEL 09/14/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##