* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/14/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 30 32 30 29 31 35 39 45 48 50 48 48 41 40 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 30 32 30 29 31 35 39 45 48 50 48 48 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 28 26 23 22 22 25 28 34 41 47 49 49 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 45 45 44 38 35 32 25 19 16 13 16 22 25 37 37 34 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 1 0 3 0 0 -1 0 -1 3 3 2 4 6 12 SHEAR DIR 239 247 255 266 263 260 283 277 275 239 242 229 226 217 209 208 217 SST (C) 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.7 27.0 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 25.8 24.1 22.7 18.9 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 108 109 110 111 114 120 123 129 131 131 130 131 114 102 95 81 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 98 100 101 105 106 109 110 110 109 111 98 90 85 75 69 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.4 -55.3 -55.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 44 42 40 39 39 43 47 45 49 51 56 57 60 53 50 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 15 18 16 16 19 21 24 26 27 30 31 34 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 8 4 11 10 20 20 17 14 34 21 7 4 19 65 140 200 MB DIV -1 -2 21 36 23 3 8 0 19 0 18 46 51 72 105 30 74 700-850 TADV 18 15 9 10 12 5 0 1 7 8 10 17 23 19 19 22 -8 LAND (KM) 1857 1977 2097 2213 2329 2363 2196 2032 1886 1745 1602 1463 1363 1361 1511 1380 879 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.4 26.8 27.7 28.8 30.0 31.2 32.5 34.1 36.1 38.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.8 35.9 37.1 38.2 39.3 41.1 42.5 43.6 44.2 44.4 43.9 42.7 40.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 10 13 16 20 24 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 7 9 13 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -27. -31. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -0. -3. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 12. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -3. -5. -6. -4. -0. 4. 10. 13. 15. 13. 13. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.2 34.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 52.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/14/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 31 30 32 30 29 31 35 39 45 48 50 48 48 41 40 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 34 32 31 33 37 41 47 50 52 50 50 43 42 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 32 30 29 31 35 39 45 48 50 48 48 41 40 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 25 24 26 30 34 40 43 45 43 43 36 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT