* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/14/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 58 61 63 67 68 69 67 56 52 48 46 44 43 43 42 V (KT) LAND 50 55 58 61 63 67 59 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 60 62 67 67 40 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 24 26 22 11 10 8 3 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 0 9 2 -3 -1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 282 281 288 294 285 301 212 287 28 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 143 146 148 149 146 138 133 133 133 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 128 131 133 133 129 121 116 115 115 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 82 82 81 82 84 85 86 84 83 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 18 19 18 16 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 121 117 96 93 100 90 100 116 120 105 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 115 107 86 92 112 97 99 89 65 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 7 8 3 -1 0 -8 -4 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 96 119 135 129 116 49 -5 -85 -148 -202 -246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.3 95.4 95.8 96.1 97.0 97.9 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 17 21 23 23 17 16 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 3. 3. -0. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 13. 17. 18. 19. 17. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.6 95.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.9% 38.3% 24.7% 12.1% 9.7% 12.9% 13.3% 18.4% Logistic: 18.5% 40.1% 22.9% 15.2% 7.3% 13.8% 11.4% 20.5% Bayesian: 12.9% 9.1% 2.5% 5.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 84.0% Consensus: 15.7% 29.2% 16.7% 10.8% 6.0% 9.0% 8.3% 40.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/14/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/14/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 58 61 63 67 59 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 57 61 53 33 25 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 51 55 47 27 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 46 38 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT