* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INGRID AL102013 09/13/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 39 41 42 44 46 50 52 52 50 48 48 45 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 35 38 39 41 42 44 46 50 45 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 41 41 42 38 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 24 21 19 24 9 10 7 11 5 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 0 2 6 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 254 250 269 271 271 267 249 268 241 242 225 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 145 147 151 153 148 140 135 136 137 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 125 128 130 134 136 130 122 117 118 118 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -50.7 -51.4 -50.4 -51.4 -50.3 -51.1 -50.4 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 8 5 9 8 12 9 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 84 81 83 85 87 86 84 83 82 78 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 11 13 13 14 13 12 10 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 108 110 115 113 89 84 98 97 113 100 98 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 97 94 97 111 115 116 162 99 123 44 30 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 6 11 0 -3 -1 14 7 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 129 130 130 153 160 154 95 79 -10 -92 -163 -244 -315 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.8 19.8 20.1 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.5 23.0 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.6 94.8 94.9 95.0 95.5 96.3 97.1 97.9 98.7 99.4 100.2 100.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 18 18 22 26 26 20 15 16 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 15. 17. 17. 15. 13. 13. 10. 9. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.7 94.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 INGRID 09/13/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.9% 9.3% 6.3% 5.6% 8.2% 9.3% 16.9% Logistic: 6.2% 19.4% 7.4% 8.7% 4.3% 11.7% 26.1% 52.3% Bayesian: 3.8% 3.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 30.4% Consensus: 4.9% 12.2% 5.8% 5.3% 3.3% 6.7% 11.8% 33.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 INGRID 09/13/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 INGRID 09/13/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 39 41 42 44 46 50 45 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 40 42 46 41 30 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 36 38 42 37 26 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 30 34 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT