* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102013 09/13/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 44 48 53 57 47 48 46 44 41 40 39 39 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 44 48 53 57 47 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 38 38 35 36 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 17 18 24 18 19 8 19 13 6 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 5 1 9 6 7 0 -2 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 265 261 248 257 273 275 272 242 308 243 225 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.2 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 141 139 139 140 144 146 145 138 135 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 126 124 121 121 124 128 130 129 122 120 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -50.7 -51.4 -50.2 -51.0 -50.0 -51.2 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 9 9 6 8 5 8 7 10 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 81 83 82 87 87 86 86 86 85 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 12 12 14 16 19 20 12 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 106 111 112 116 116 105 98 112 103 116 109 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 78 79 87 100 113 118 96 152 120 164 64 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 0 1 8 21 13 3 -7 5 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 151 141 119 103 88 88 116 138 118 43 8 -123 -245 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.1 94.5 94.6 94.8 94.8 94.9 95.3 95.9 96.8 97.8 99.0 100.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 1 1 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 17 21 22 18 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 18. 23. 27. 17. 18. 16. 14. 11. 10. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.7 93.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102013 TEN 09/13/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.91 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.3% 9.5% 6.6% 6.1% 8.4% 7.9% 14.0% Logistic: 7.8% 22.7% 10.8% 10.8% 4.7% 13.3% 25.3% 45.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.5% 0.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2% Consensus: 4.8% 13.2% 7.1% 6.4% 3.7% 7.3% 11.1% 24.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102013 TEN 09/13/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102013 TEN 09/13/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 40 44 48 53 57 47 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 36 40 44 49 53 43 44 29 25 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 38 43 47 37 38 23 19 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 30 35 39 29 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT