* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/12/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 71 68 63 55 41 30 21 20 21 20 23 32 32 33 35 V (KT) LAND 75 74 71 68 63 55 41 30 21 20 21 20 23 32 32 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 75 74 71 67 62 55 47 41 36 34 33 32 34 36 39 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 20 21 24 27 36 42 37 30 29 27 24 15 23 19 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 3 -1 7 1 -2 0 3 4 0 0 -2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 208 204 225 237 249 237 239 250 265 253 253 257 272 268 285 260 264 SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.9 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.6 27.2 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 106 104 103 107 110 113 116 117 119 125 132 133 132 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 99 96 94 93 96 99 102 104 104 104 108 112 112 110 110 108 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -53.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 59 52 50 45 42 43 43 42 47 50 47 47 48 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 30 29 26 25 19 16 14 15 18 17 18 22 21 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 98 103 91 71 55 50 37 26 23 20 31 18 20 36 27 39 54 200 MB DIV 98 87 80 34 10 4 -1 4 10 37 17 11 6 7 -13 34 21 700-850 TADV 10 16 24 23 18 10 3 6 2 3 3 0 2 5 5 2 0 LAND (KM) 1247 1262 1286 1331 1381 1540 1760 1997 2232 2458 2425 2291 2181 2076 1991 1905 1828 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.8 21.7 22.4 23.1 24.0 24.7 25.2 25.6 26.1 26.6 27.4 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.8 30.3 31.8 33.9 36.2 38.5 40.7 42.5 44.0 45.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 9 8 7 5 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 19 15 11 10 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -13. -19. -24. -24. -22. -24. -23. -17. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -12. -20. -34. -45. -54. -55. -54. -55. -52. -43. -43. -42. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.8 28.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/12/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 71 68 63 55 41 30 21 20 21 20 23 32 32 33 35 18HR AGO 75 74 71 68 63 55 41 30 21 20 21 20 23 32 32 33 35 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 63 55 41 30 21 20 21 20 23 32 32 33 35 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 60 52 38 27 18 17 18 17 20 29 29 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT