* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/11/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 50 49 47 49 50 46 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 50 49 47 49 50 41 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 52 52 52 52 54 53 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 25 21 20 27 23 28 23 32 52 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -7 -2 -3 -2 -5 0 1 8 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 252 253 254 267 275 273 249 213 216 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.7 23.9 16.9 12.2 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 133 135 132 134 101 77 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 110 109 110 110 114 89 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 48 48 47 49 47 52 51 49 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 8 11 13 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -83 -75 -90 -100 -84 -54 36 104 31 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -45 -21 -7 0 -18 17 42 56 76 39 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 0 -5 1 7 25 -9 35 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1084 1039 998 960 924 792 591 342 78 29 419 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.5 33.1 33.6 34.0 35.2 37.5 40.6 44.7 49.6 54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.1 65.3 65.5 65.8 66.2 65.7 64.1 60.5 55.2 49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 9 14 20 28 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 16 20 26 31 23 35 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -26. -30. -35. -41. -45. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -7. -4. -3. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. -4. -23. -27. -32. -38. -41. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 31.9 64.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 424.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 11.2% 8.1% 7.1% 6.2% 8.7% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.1% 3.2% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/11/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 51 51 50 49 47 49 50 41 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 48 47 45 47 48 39 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 45 44 42 44 45 36 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 38 36 38 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT