* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/10/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 50 51 50 49 49 57 60 46 43 39 34 31 30 30 V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 50 51 50 49 49 57 60 38 35 31 27 24 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 53 54 54 53 55 59 55 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 19 21 27 28 23 23 35 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 0 -3 -3 -2 1 9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 234 254 252 246 272 273 266 207 201 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.2 21.0 15.3 8.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 133 133 134 130 128 87 74 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 112 110 109 110 108 109 80 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 43 41 44 45 45 45 47 52 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 13 13 11 11 10 16 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -65 -74 -64 -80 -78 -73 6 99 97 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -17 -22 -4 15 3 24 59 101 61 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 6 5 4 2 0 6 13 -2 -21 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1142 1095 1052 1014 978 851 688 536 284 92 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.9 32.6 33.2 33.7 34.8 36.5 38.7 42.1 46.8 51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.7 64.8 64.9 65.1 65.3 65.7 65.6 64.9 62.5 58.4 54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 7 10 15 24 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 17 21 26 28 29 17 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -19. -23. -26. -31. -35. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -3. 3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 12. 15. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.1 64.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 402.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 11.8% 8.4% 7.0% 6.0% 8.3% 8.2% 9.3% Logistic: 3.8% 5.0% 3.5% 3.1% 0.8% 4.5% 1.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.8% 4.0% 3.4% 2.3% 4.3% 3.3% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/10/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 49 50 51 50 49 49 57 60 38 35 31 27 24 23 22 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 47 46 45 45 53 56 34 31 27 23 20 19 18 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 42 41 41 49 52 30 27 23 19 16 15 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 35 34 34 42 45 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT