* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092013 09/09/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 65 72 84 95 97 96 89 80 66 54 42 37 34 34 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 65 72 84 95 97 96 89 80 66 54 42 37 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 57 64 71 85 92 84 74 65 56 47 39 33 29 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 6 5 3 12 16 20 28 35 39 40 42 42 37 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 1 -2 0 -2 0 3 2 1 1 0 -1 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 65 63 60 52 83 158 170 192 218 236 241 247 239 245 248 254 264 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.2 26.5 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 137 134 126 119 107 105 105 107 109 111 117 129 133 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 135 132 128 119 111 99 95 94 95 97 99 105 115 117 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -53.3 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 79 77 74 74 73 71 69 64 51 38 30 23 23 27 32 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 26 28 29 32 36 35 34 32 29 24 19 15 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 130 139 132 145 145 139 156 150 143 106 95 85 68 56 40 30 16 200 MB DIV 85 76 92 91 100 98 126 119 128 47 -7 -19 9 -1 5 -1 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 7 11 13 10 8 16 14 12 1 1 LAND (KM) 808 900 993 1070 1149 1253 1356 1364 1411 1476 1600 1782 1999 2251 2460 2307 2162 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.0 16.3 18.3 20.3 22.1 23.6 24.7 25.5 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.4 28.2 29.1 29.7 30.1 30.6 31.2 32.3 34.0 36.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 9 8 9 10 10 9 7 8 10 11 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 12 9 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 405 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 13. 11. 8. 4. -4. -11. -17. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 20. 27. 39. 50. 52. 51. 44. 35. 21. 9. -3. -8. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.6 24.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/09/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.84 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 38.1% 22.9% 9.5% 8.9% 17.8% 25.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 36.8% 15.1% 2.8% 1.9% 11.4% 16.5% 7.5% Bayesian: 5.4% 25.5% 5.0% 0.5% 0.6% 6.6% 8.8% 3.5% Consensus: 7.2% 33.5% 14.3% 4.3% 3.8% 11.9% 17.0% 3.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 HUMBERTO 09/09/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 9( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 57 65 72 84 95 97 96 89 80 66 54 42 37 34 34 18HR AGO 45 44 50 58 65 77 88 90 89 82 73 59 47 35 30 27 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 49 56 68 79 81 80 73 64 50 38 26 21 18 18 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 42 54 65 67 66 59 50 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT