* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP122013 09/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 51 55 57 59 61 63 66 70 74 78 81 86 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 46 41 37 41 39 37 39 42 46 50 53 57 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 43 38 35 39 38 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 6 3 6 4 8 2 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 244 256 267 278 256 303 299 119 254 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.7 30.1 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 156 158 156 147 143 145 149 163 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 7 8 6 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 72 71 69 64 64 63 62 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 40 28 38 44 34 46 48 57 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 31 -8 -13 -14 -14 12 10 20 6 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 163 226 226 146 66 -6 -11 5 0 16 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.3 24.1 24.7 25.3 26.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.9 108.5 109.0 109.5 110.2 110.6 110.8 111.0 111.1 111.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 18 19 19 16 9 7 9 10 24 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 418 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 31. 35. 39. 43. 46. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 107.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122013 LORENA 09/06/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 26.2% 19.1% 14.2% 10.1% 13.7% 15.9% 15.2% Logistic: 10.0% 29.3% 19.4% 10.5% 5.7% 26.9% 17.4% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 21.5% 13.0% 8.3% 5.3% 14.0% 11.1% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122013 LORENA 09/06/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##