* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP112013 09/01/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 58 55 51 43 35 28 24 23 23 22 21 22 23 24 27 V (KT) LAND 60 60 58 55 51 43 35 28 24 23 23 22 21 22 23 24 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 58 55 51 42 35 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 9 10 9 5 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 3 1 4 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 224 199 188 194 205 219 235 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.1 24.6 24.2 24.1 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 120 115 111 105 100 99 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 5 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 60 61 62 55 51 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 14 13 10 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -5 -10 -4 2 -7 4 -9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 4 0 -6 -9 -14 -2 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 -1 -1 0 -2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 541 506 474 455 440 421 416 417 420 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.6 23.1 23.4 23.6 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.7 115.7 115.8 115.9 116.0 116.1 116.2 116.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -9. -17. -25. -32. -36. -37. -37. -38. -39. -38. -37. -36. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.0 115.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 KIKO 09/01/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##