* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112013 08/31/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 36 37 36 34 34 34 36 38 39 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 36 37 36 34 34 34 36 38 39 41 44 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 26 25 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 7 7 11 13 10 12 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 345 297 294 270 234 210 195 185 184 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.5 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 136 130 126 119 118 115 116 116 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 69 66 65 64 62 57 52 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 2 -8 -11 -14 -2 3 15 16 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 33 7 13 13 -6 -5 -3 3 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 793 762 731 705 681 640 610 611 618 633 648 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.9 21.3 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.3 116.5 116.7 116.8 116.9 116.9 117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 10 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. 18. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.5 116.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112013 ELEVEN 08/31/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 16.8% 13.6% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.1% 5.2% 3.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112013 ELEVEN 08/31/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##