* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP092013 08/24/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 53 52 46 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 53 52 46 35 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 50 51 47 39 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 4 4 5 6 9 8 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 2 5 2 0 -1 -2 -2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 258 251 224 179 221 152 189 92 57 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 27.9 26.5 25.1 22.8 21.0 20.5 20.2 20.3 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 143 129 114 89 70 64 59 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -50.9 -50.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 3 4 3 4 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 69 65 65 62 53 42 39 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 23 23 22 20 16 10 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 70 72 78 78 46 39 21 14 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 94 78 104 116 23 41 13 13 1 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -7 1 11 6 5 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 359 298 259 213 132 135 42 15 74 104 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.9 23.8 25.5 26.8 27.7 28.2 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.1 112.3 112.7 113.0 113.7 114.4 115.1 115.6 115.9 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 8 6 4 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -15. -24. -27. -28. -27. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 12. 6. -5. -19. -29. -35. -36. -36. -37. -37. -36. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.2 111.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 35.4% 24.2% 17.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 11.9% 7.5% 3.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 15.9% 10.7% 6.8% 4.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 IVO 08/24/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##