* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092013 08/23/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 44 44 41 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 44 44 41 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 34 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 6 2 10 12 11 17 13 14 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 1 2 0 2 -1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 60 86 145 169 148 184 181 168 153 161 216 203 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.4 25.9 23.4 22.3 21.6 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 146 137 122 95 84 76 67 66 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 67 65 61 55 47 39 32 31 33 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 20 20 21 19 16 11 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 53 59 66 76 67 66 34 18 12 10 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 56 90 106 77 104 81 44 34 10 25 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -3 0 0 -6 0 -1 0 0 0 1 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 588 546 509 482 464 357 305 247 166 142 178 199 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.2 20.8 22.3 23.8 25.3 26.6 27.5 28.0 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.1 113.3 113.6 113.9 114.5 115.1 115.6 116.0 116.4 116.8 117.0 117.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 10. 5. 2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -9. -16. -19. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 14. 11. 2. -9. -17. -20. -23. -24. -26. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.3 112.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092013 NINE 08/23/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.11 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 24.9% 18.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 9.1% 6.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.1% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092013 NINE 08/23/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##