* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PEWA CP012013 08/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 63 66 66 67 67 71 69 68 68 68 69 69 68 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 63 66 66 67 67 71 69 68 68 68 69 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 60 62 65 68 71 75 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 6 8 13 23 17 17 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 0 0 0 -1 2 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 224 226 245 232 224 241 222 245 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 150 150 152 157 155 155 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 58 56 56 53 51 47 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 17 16 18 19 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 70 65 60 49 49 49 51 59 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 57 41 25 26 23 19 41 22 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -2 -1 -2 3 7 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2302 2365 2434 2511 2592 2751 2832 2600 2393 2208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.3 13.9 15.2 16.5 17.8 19.2 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.0 180.0 181.1 182.2 183.3 185.4 187.7 189.9 192.0 194.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 56 58 63 72 62 46 39 68 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. 14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 12. 12. 16. 14. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.5 179.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012013 PEWA 08/18/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.58 2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 35.4% 34.7% 26.8% 22.9% 16.5% 15.5% 11.9% Logistic: 11.1% 15.0% 15.5% 9.2% 3.3% 3.3% 0.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 4.6% 33.7% 14.7% 6.3% 3.9% 12.6% 10.7% 2.9% Consensus: 10.2% 28.1% 21.6% 14.1% 10.1% 10.8% 9.0% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012013 PEWA 08/18/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##