* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/18/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 31 27 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 24 25 27 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 31 31 27 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 24 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 32 31 29 27 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 20 18 22 23 26 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 3 4 3 2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 250 261 263 257 255 246 251 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.6 26.3 27.1 27.3 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 112 112 111 117 126 128 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 101 103 103 101 107 114 115 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 44 43 40 39 38 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 8 8 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 15 18 20 9 -10 -25 -59 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 4 -8 6 5 4 -13 -14 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 7 7 8 19 16 16 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2107 2208 2310 2300 2271 2238 2158 2006 1873 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.4 23.3 24.4 25.6 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.3 38.3 39.3 40.4 41.5 43.8 45.9 47.9 50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 14 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -14. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.8 37.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 7.8% 5.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.8% 2.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052013 ERIN 08/18/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/18/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 32 31 31 27 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 24 25 27 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 31 31 27 25 23 22 22 22 22 22 24 25 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 29 25 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 22 23 25 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 20 18 16 15 15 15 15 15 17 18 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT