* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PEWA CP012013 08/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 62 68 74 75 72 67 63 61 61 62 63 65 66 65 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 62 68 74 75 72 67 63 61 61 62 63 65 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 60 65 73 79 81 77 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 5 7 6 3 9 12 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -8 -7 -6 2 0 2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 130 227 307 336 11 259 263 256 264 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 148 148 151 147 152 156 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 56 57 61 62 62 62 64 62 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 83 82 83 85 69 59 61 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 48 47 55 64 40 21 15 20 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -6 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2051 2129 2212 2305 2403 2591 2800 2903 2625 2337 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.9 176.1 177.3 178.6 179.9 182.3 184.8 187.3 189.8 192.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 38 43 48 47 51 56 66 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 29. 30. 27. 22. 18. 16. 16. 17. 18. 20. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 9.9 174.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012013 PEWA 08/17/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 16.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 12.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.97 19.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -11.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 10.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 11.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 6.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.7% 74.5% 72.5% 62.3% 57.8% 43.9% 68.5% 44.0% Logistic: 39.5% 56.9% 55.1% 47.0% 58.6% 26.1% 14.6% 31.5% Bayesian: 1.6% 57.2% 32.2% 15.6% 23.8% 46.9% 40.0% 13.7% Consensus: 25.6% 62.9% 53.3% 41.7% 46.7% 39.0% 41.0% 29.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012013 PEWA 08/17/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##