* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/17/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 34 34 32 32 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 34 V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 34 34 32 32 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 37 37 36 34 32 30 29 28 28 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 13 16 22 18 22 25 28 27 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 1 -2 2 1 0 0 1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 226 246 234 230 253 244 251 244 256 237 247 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.6 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 28.1 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 110 112 112 115 120 125 127 129 130 138 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 103 102 104 103 106 111 115 117 117 117 122 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 55 55 51 46 41 40 39 38 37 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 40 43 46 35 31 0 -11 -45 -65 -58 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 14 25 18 14 -6 1 -4 -3 -16 3 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -3 1 1 3 5 15 15 17 9 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1798 1902 2000 2103 2207 2215 2142 2107 2013 1825 1706 1655 1647 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.5 22.4 23.4 24.6 25.9 27.4 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.0 35.1 36.1 37.1 38.2 40.1 42.3 44.7 47.1 49.4 51.3 52.9 54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 8 10 17 10 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. -22. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.2 34.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/17/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 8.8% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/17/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 35 34 34 32 32 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 34 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 32 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 31 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 28 28 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 29 30 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 23 23 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 24 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT