* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/16/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 34 35 38 40 40 39 39 41 44 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 34 35 38 40 40 39 39 41 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 35 35 34 32 32 32 33 35 37 40 43 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 11 14 14 14 19 14 16 16 18 13 14 25 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 0 0 -3 0 0 3 1 3 1 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 307 215 197 211 235 214 243 237 250 236 264 254 259 223 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.7 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 111 111 111 113 116 121 126 126 127 130 130 135 143 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 105 104 104 105 107 112 116 115 115 116 115 118 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 61 58 52 48 47 45 43 41 36 34 35 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 41 38 37 52 44 48 26 13 -8 -34 -50 -38 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 0 26 40 14 11 0 -6 7 1 -13 8 5 8 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -6 -5 -4 -2 2 2 4 9 11 9 8 6 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1521 1657 1793 1909 2007 2211 2174 2071 2002 1966 1833 1698 1618 1603 1624 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.3 22.1 23.0 24.0 25.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.6 32.8 34.0 35.1 36.1 38.2 40.2 42.4 44.6 46.8 48.8 50.5 51.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 10 8 16 21 12 19 21 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 6. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.6 31.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/16/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.0% 8.3% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.2% 3.5% 2.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/16/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 34 35 38 40 40 39 39 41 44 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 34 33 34 34 35 38 40 40 39 39 41 44 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 31 30 31 31 32 35 37 37 36 36 38 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 24 25 25 26 29 31 31 30 30 32 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT