* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/16/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 41 41 41 40 42 46 51 53 54 57 61 63 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 41 41 41 40 42 46 51 53 54 57 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 41 41 40 38 37 38 40 43 47 53 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 5 8 10 12 15 15 13 11 9 4 8 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 3 4 4 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 13 21 122 155 219 186 218 220 248 244 289 254 282 237 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 118 114 112 112 110 112 115 120 123 126 128 127 126 129 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 114 109 106 106 104 104 107 111 113 117 119 117 116 118 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 67 67 65 61 57 51 46 42 37 33 32 32 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 17 16 14 13 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 49 36 31 32 33 44 50 54 37 36 12 -10 -22 -28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 42 25 18 27 0 10 -19 -4 -6 3 8 8 -7 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -14 -10 -5 -4 -6 -2 0 -3 4 6 6 6 7 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1182 1317 1454 1581 1709 1952 2172 2081 1971 1875 1787 1713 1573 1441 1248 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 28.5 29.8 31.0 32.1 33.3 35.5 37.6 39.7 41.7 43.7 45.8 48.1 50.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 7 8 14 18 13 35 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 7. 11. 16. 18. 19. 22. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.2 28.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/16/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.5% 9.9% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 9.6% 4.6% 1.2% 0.6% 3.3% 1.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 8.5% 4.9% 2.9% 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/16/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 40 41 41 41 40 42 46 51 53 54 57 61 63 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 39 39 39 38 40 44 49 51 52 55 59 61 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 34 34 34 33 35 39 44 46 47 50 54 56 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 27 27 26 28 32 37 39 40 43 47 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT