* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRIETTE EP082013 08/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 64 61 56 50 43 37 34 32 33 35 37 40 42 44 V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 64 61 56 50 43 37 34 32 33 35 37 40 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 67 62 58 50 45 42 39 37 37 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 6 5 3 6 10 8 9 10 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 1 -2 -3 -7 -5 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 269 264 288 281 194 215 225 255 249 264 254 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.3 24.8 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.0 26.3 26.1 26.4 27.0 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 116 110 105 112 119 124 128 126 130 136 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 65 62 54 51 50 50 50 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -38 -30 -21 -16 -2 -1 11 8 1 0 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 35 24 14 11 32 0 -17 -24 -25 -30 -11 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 5 4 8 0 2 -5 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2076 1974 1873 1775 1677 1472 1265 1051 832 636 509 574 827 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.4 17.0 16.4 15.9 15.3 14.7 14.0 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.4 136.3 137.2 138.1 139.0 141.0 143.1 145.4 147.9 150.7 153.8 157.3 160.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 7 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -25. -32. -38. -41. -43. -42. -40. -38. -35. -33. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.5 135.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 HENRIETTE 08/07/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##