* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 29 32 35 38 41 44 44 46 45 47 49 52 56 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 29 32 35 38 41 44 44 46 45 47 49 52 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 2 3 4 2 3 4 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 157 138 193 241 53 155 128 206 224 200 243 227 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.9 26.3 26.8 26.8 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 124 124 126 124 123 121 125 131 131 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 56 54 56 55 55 55 54 52 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 12 24 15 2 5 -14 4 4 7 3 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 14 23 34 38 50 54 31 24 35 9 -5 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 0 -2 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1576 1499 1423 1347 1272 1111 938 799 667 568 503 474 499 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 14.1 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.3 143.0 143.8 144.5 146.0 147.6 149.0 150.5 152.0 153.5 155.0 156.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 9 4 1 2 1 0 0 1 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 16. 15. 17. 19. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 141.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.90 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.3% 13.2% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 12.7% 5.0% 3.1% 1.3% 3.7% 1.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.4% 6.1% 4.3% 0.5% 1.2% 4.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/06/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##