* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/04/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 28 30 35 40 46 49 52 54 54 54 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 28 30 35 40 46 49 52 54 54 54 54 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 24 24 25 27 29 32 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 5 8 8 10 11 11 10 12 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 -2 -6 -7 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 158 157 155 148 141 124 111 67 84 64 73 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.7 27.1 27.2 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 130 131 134 133 134 134 131 130 135 136 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 65 65 65 62 63 61 59 56 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 2 9 17 14 30 22 12 2 -14 -24 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 17 26 27 32 41 51 84 79 61 36 35 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2060 1993 1927 1863 1800 1669 1535 1403 1257 1116 981 864 782 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.1 13.8 13.6 13.3 12.8 12.5 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.2 137.0 137.7 138.5 139.2 140.8 142.4 144.0 145.8 147.6 149.6 151.6 153.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 3 4 7 14 17 11 6 9 12 13 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 5. 10. 16. 19. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 136.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.57 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.7% 10.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 6.2% 2.4% 1.1% 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.0% 4.1% 2.7% 0.1% 0.5% 4.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/04/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##