* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082013 08/04/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 53 61 67 70 72 71 70 68 64 59 55 55 56 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 53 61 67 70 72 71 70 68 64 59 55 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 53 58 61 61 60 56 51 45 40 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 6 5 4 5 5 7 7 9 7 4 7 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -9 -8 -5 -5 -4 -1 -3 1 2 5 6 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 71 89 87 51 24 351 7 339 350 343 15 27 271 283 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.6 24.9 25.4 25.4 25.1 25.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 140 137 135 133 136 131 131 130 112 117 117 114 116 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.4 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 74 73 73 76 78 75 73 76 70 65 59 52 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 12 13 13 15 15 16 16 16 16 14 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 32 37 38 31 27 28 18 11 8 2 0 2 -2 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 54 78 91 95 96 78 87 54 66 49 23 8 2 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 2 3 5 2 8 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1963 2018 2075 2132 2191 2272 2346 2293 2088 1874 1660 1448 1227 984 746 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.8 127.5 128.3 129.0 130.5 132.1 133.8 135.6 137.5 139.4 141.3 143.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 12 8 7 7 11 5 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 19. 19. 19. 17. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 32. 35. 37. 36. 35. 33. 29. 24. 20. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 126.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.79 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 41.3% 24.1% 16.5% 11.6% 16.8% 49.1% 46.4% Logistic: 8.0% 40.0% 21.0% 14.8% 15.7% 21.9% 37.0% 17.9% Bayesian: 2.6% 10.2% 4.0% 1.7% 0.5% 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% Consensus: 7.9% 30.5% 16.3% 11.0% 9.3% 13.7% 29.4% 21.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##