* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP062013 07/28/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 48 47 44 39 34 30 27 24 25 26 27 27 28 27 24 V (KT) LAND 50 50 48 47 44 39 34 30 27 25 25 26 28 28 28 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 50 49 47 42 39 37 36 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 7 11 11 13 18 23 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 13 11 13 14 14 6 6 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 285 304 300 287 303 272 264 287 292 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.6 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.6 26.0 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 111 116 116 116 121 125 137 140 144 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 44 42 42 38 36 36 38 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 20 19 15 12 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -2 -4 -4 1 -15 -21 -23 -45 -58 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -13 -21 -28 -36 -24 -5 -10 -7 -7 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -12 -5 -3 -15 -13 -7 -7 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1099 920 742 570 399 89 75 187 370 656 967 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.3 146.0 147.7 149.4 151.0 154.1 157.2 160.2 163.3 166.3 169.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 15 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 9 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -21. -24. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -5. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -25. -24. -23. -23. -22. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.3 144.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062013 FLOSSIE 07/28/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##