* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL042013 07/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 36 37 41 44 47 49 52 55 58 61 65 67 70 70 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 36 37 41 44 47 49 52 55 58 61 65 67 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 33 32 32 33 33 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 15 16 12 18 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 269 263 250 256 243 237 251 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 134 140 144 142 136 135 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 133 140 144 141 132 129 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 11 13 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 41 39 38 40 41 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -3 -11 -19 -23 -33 -46 -49 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -5 -15 -11 6 43 0 3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 3 2 -2 -4 -1 -7 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1471 1349 1198 1078 888 485 221 187 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.0 51.1 53.2 55.2 57.3 61.3 64.9 68.2 71.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 18 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 11 26 29 27 17 23 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 20. 23. 26. 30. 32. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 49.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 332.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 11.6% 7.9% 6.3% 5.9% 9.3% 9.9% 13.5% Logistic: 2.1% 7.4% 5.4% 2.7% 1.1% 3.6% 1.6% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.5% 4.5% 3.0% 2.3% 4.3% 3.8% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013 DORIAN 07/27/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 35 36 37 41 44 47 49 52 55 58 61 65 67 70 70 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 41 44 47 49 52 55 58 61 65 67 70 70 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 37 40 43 45 48 51 54 57 61 63 66 66 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 33 36 38 41 44 47 50 54 56 59 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT