* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/10/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 48 48 45 44 42 46 50 51 53 56 56 55 54 52 V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 48 40 41 40 39 43 46 48 49 52 52 35 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 40 41 36 34 34 35 38 41 45 51 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 26 23 31 33 26 23 19 21 19 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 8 7 0 2 0 -4 -2 -2 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 285 270 271 258 277 265 295 266 270 250 272 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.6 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.2 27.5 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 142 148 137 133 134 138 142 138 129 123 127 128 129 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 143 142 146 130 123 120 121 123 118 109 103 105 104 105 108 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 12 10 10 8 8 8 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 58 55 59 63 61 67 66 66 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 9 11 8 8 6 8 10 9 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 1 12 -1 -33 -47 -78 -17 -23 -14 -35 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 39 65 94 82 62 32 35 35 44 25 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 14 19 3 -1 9 0 13 9 3 -2 2 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 333 223 157 67 -15 2 140 265 193 116 108 101 77 5 -63 -111 -156 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.9 16.7 17.6 18.5 20.5 22.5 24.4 25.9 27.0 28.3 29.7 30.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.1 67.0 68.9 70.5 72.2 74.7 76.2 77.3 78.2 78.9 79.5 80.1 80.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 19 18 17 14 12 10 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 21 24 30 20 16 25 27 27 20 9 4 10 3 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 25 CX,CY: -23/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -10. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -4. -0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.1 65.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 10.9% 7.1% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% Logistic: 0.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.3% 2.6% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 49 48 40 41 40 39 43 46 48 49 52 52 35 29 28 18HR AGO 50 49 48 47 39 40 39 38 42 45 47 48 51 51 34 28 27 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 37 38 37 36 40 43 45 46 49 49 32 26 25 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 32 33 32 31 35 38 40 41 44 44 27 21 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT