* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/09/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 47 47 43 43 41 44 44 46 45 47 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 47 36 36 36 35 37 37 39 38 40 39 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 35 34 31 29 28 29 32 35 38 42 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 20 24 22 23 28 27 23 19 17 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 2 5 14 4 5 0 -5 0 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 304 280 282 274 245 268 270 290 299 310 300 334 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.6 28.1 28.0 26.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 145 146 143 137 132 129 127 126 130 130 136 135 116 138 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 145 146 143 132 123 117 113 110 112 110 115 113 99 116 115 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 52 54 54 52 55 58 55 61 64 63 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 9 9 10 10 6 6 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 14 10 -4 -4 -12 -53 -71 -101 -45 -26 -28 -75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 33 34 35 43 74 58 21 40 23 17 -7 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 1 3 5 11 -2 26 -6 0 0 6 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 353 450 300 159 84 -56 135 213 337 363 284 248 186 114 16 -85 -29 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.4 19.3 21.1 22.8 24.4 25.9 27.1 28.1 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.3 62.5 64.6 66.5 68.4 71.4 73.4 74.9 75.9 76.5 77.2 77.9 78.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 21 20 19 15 12 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 22 22 19 23 25 12 12 11 14 14 18 14 0 5 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 25 CX,CY: -22/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -6. -8. -11. -12. -15. -15. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -2. -4. -1. -1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.9 60.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.33 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.7% 7.7% 5.9% 5.5% 7.6% 0.0% 8.8% Logistic: 1.9% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.5% 3.1% 2.1% 1.9% 2.8% 0.5% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/09/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 46 47 36 36 36 35 37 37 39 38 40 39 30 28 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 45 34 34 34 33 35 35 37 36 38 37 28 26 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 31 31 31 30 32 32 34 33 35 34 25 23 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 25 25 25 24 26 26 28 27 29 28 19 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT