* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/08/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 50 51 54 54 53 54 54 55 58 60 60 61 60 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 50 51 54 42 44 45 44 46 49 50 51 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 47 49 50 51 38 40 39 38 39 41 46 53 60 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 15 16 17 21 15 27 21 30 18 21 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 2 8 5 7 0 1 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 302 298 316 301 283 256 278 277 278 268 267 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.2 28.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 147 145 140 142 149 133 135 137 140 140 138 136 126 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 150 147 145 140 141 144 125 123 122 123 121 118 115 106 100 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 12 11 12 13 12 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 55 53 52 53 50 57 55 59 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 12 10 10 9 7 9 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 35 27 18 12 2 7 -21 -41 -74 -70 -54 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 25 32 26 44 44 57 55 66 -1 42 38 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 2 5 6 2 17 14 6 2 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 647 638 465 359 419 211 85 -32 25 145 235 243 164 145 132 126 96 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 12.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 16.1 17.6 19.2 20.8 22.5 24.0 25.4 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.8 55.0 57.3 59.5 61.8 66.1 69.6 72.5 74.7 76.1 77.1 77.8 78.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 23 23 23 20 17 14 12 10 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 37 36 31 36 17 23 36 17 20 27 32 27 24 18 10 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 14. 14. 13. 14. 14. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.4 52.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.72 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 16.5% 11.1% 8.2% 7.7% 10.5% 11.1% 14.1% Logistic: 6.3% 19.9% 9.7% 5.1% 4.5% 8.5% 7.9% 8.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 26.1% 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.2% Consensus: 4.7% 20.9% 9.0% 4.5% 4.2% 6.9% 6.7% 7.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 47 50 51 54 42 44 45 44 46 49 50 51 52 51 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 46 47 50 38 40 41 40 42 45 46 47 48 47 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 42 45 33 35 36 35 37 40 41 42 43 42 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 34 37 25 27 28 27 29 32 33 34 35 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT