* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 48 53 55 56 54 52 47 51 52 53 54 55 54 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 48 53 55 48 46 44 39 43 44 45 46 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 47 49 51 52 45 43 40 37 36 38 41 45 50 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 17 19 17 27 23 31 29 27 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 0 1 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 327 292 300 312 285 274 266 283 270 289 282 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 27.6 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 150 152 149 147 142 141 143 146 132 139 138 138 138 138 135 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 150 152 149 147 142 141 140 139 121 125 122 120 119 117 114 103 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 12 11 12 11 10 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 58 56 53 57 55 58 60 61 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 40 28 22 16 -9 -5 -37 -61 -100 -71 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 8 16 16 18 44 30 70 65 28 20 30 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 1 6 2 7 21 3 12 0 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 652 634 615 441 337 360 164 -24 49 54 176 289 232 159 144 128 116 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.8 13.6 15.2 16.7 18.2 19.7 21.5 23.1 24.6 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.6 52.9 55.2 57.5 59.8 64.2 68.2 71.6 74.0 75.6 76.6 77.2 77.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 24 24 24 23 22 19 16 12 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 27 40 36 33 20 19 26 34 15 25 31 28 26 23 16 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -15. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 13. 15. 16. 14. 12. 7. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.6 50.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.5% 10.4% 7.9% 7.3% 10.4% 10.9% 14.4% Logistic: 6.6% 18.1% 9.2% 5.1% 4.8% 9.8% 10.0% 15.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 26.8% 5.6% 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 2.1% 0.8% Consensus: 4.6% 20.1% 8.4% 4.4% 4.1% 7.1% 7.7% 10.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/08/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 48 53 55 48 46 44 39 43 44 45 46 47 46 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 45 50 52 45 43 41 36 40 41 42 43 44 43 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 40 45 47 40 38 36 31 35 36 37 38 39 38 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 36 38 31 29 27 22 26 27 28 29 30 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT