* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 44 43 39 33 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 44 43 39 33 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 42 39 36 31 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 6 7 7 12 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 1 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 24 47 144 114 116 139 133 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.0 24.9 24.5 24.0 22.9 22.4 21.4 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 123 112 107 102 91 85 74 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 67 65 69 64 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 9 7 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 15 7 13 17 3 2 -2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 6 6 3 12 21 24 -9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -12 -6 -13 -11 -4 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 281 225 156 140 177 191 271 336 379 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.4 23.4 24.2 24.7 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.2 110.1 110.9 111.7 113.4 114.9 116.2 117.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -11. -13. -17. -20. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -11. -17. -24. -30. -36. -38. -40. -42. -45. -46. -47. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.5 108.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/08/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/08/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##