* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/06/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 66 64 65 61 55 49 44 39 37 34 32 31 30 28 V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 66 64 65 61 55 49 44 39 37 34 32 31 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 62 62 61 58 52 45 37 31 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 12 12 10 2 6 1 3 6 9 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 1 3 1 2 4 4 1 0 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 111 77 80 95 95 61 95 101 117 127 137 178 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.1 25.1 23.8 22.8 23.4 23.5 23.7 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 150 145 114 101 90 97 98 100 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 77 75 73 71 67 67 63 61 61 57 54 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 7 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 45 52 66 69 41 11 5 -2 -6 -18 -9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 61 73 95 48 31 -4 -18 4 13 -12 -17 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -7 -2 -7 -15 -8 -8 0 3 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 129 105 98 61 65 190 143 154 255 422 625 797 996 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.7 21.7 22.5 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.9 104.5 105.2 105.8 107.5 109.5 111.5 113.7 115.9 118.3 120.8 123.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 15 15 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 4. 5. 1. -5. -11. -16. -21. -23. -26. -28. -29. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.9 103.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 38.5% 23.1% 16.7% 11.9% 17.2% 14.0% 8.6% Logistic: 16.7% 30.4% 17.4% 9.5% 2.8% 8.4% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.9% 14.2% 7.0% 4.1% 0.2% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 11.4% 27.7% 15.8% 10.1% 5.0% 9.6% 5.0% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/06/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##