* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052013 07/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 69 76 84 84 80 73 64 54 46 39 37 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 69 76 84 84 80 73 64 54 46 39 37 35 35 35 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 68 72 78 78 74 67 57 47 38 31 26 22 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 10 9 6 5 11 13 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 0 2 0 -2 -1 2 -1 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 74 64 84 88 62 52 64 47 38 51 44 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.6 26.6 25.4 24.6 24.0 23.8 23.3 23.7 24.2 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 153 149 140 129 117 108 102 100 96 100 105 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 8 6 6 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 81 76 72 68 64 68 64 64 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 8 11 12 11 12 11 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 19 33 51 44 57 34 21 25 16 0 -8 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 48 65 57 39 63 26 25 15 28 -18 -40 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 -4 -8 -11 -6 -6 -4 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 209 206 181 167 169 176 257 314 274 373 454 606 787 940 1123 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.1 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.4 103.1 103.9 104.6 106.1 107.8 109.6 111.4 113.2 115.2 117.4 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 18 14 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 26. 34. 34. 30. 23. 14. 4. -4. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.5 101.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 40.7% 23.8% 16.9% 11.4% 16.4% 17.0% 11.3% Logistic: 49.9% 68.4% 50.8% 38.1% 17.8% 34.0% 7.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 22.4% 67.9% 46.8% 37.1% 30.5% 40.9% 12.6% 0.0% Consensus: 29.3% 59.0% 40.5% 30.7% 19.9% 30.4% 12.4% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052013 ERICK 07/05/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##