* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 25 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 0 5 6 2 2 5 3 9 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 4 -1 -2 -1 -6 -1 -6 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 2 132 142 184 297 295 296 288 308 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.5 21.7 21.4 21.3 21.8 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.7 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 80 77 76 81 71 75 80 85 89 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 69 67 66 62 60 55 52 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 18 17 14 13 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 112 104 87 73 75 54 50 37 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -11 -14 -23 -7 9 -18 1 -17 -13 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 2 4 1 3 0 6 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 956 1052 1123 1208 1302 1536 1775 1939 2000 1763 1539 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.1 121.6 123.0 124.4 125.8 128.6 131.2 133.5 135.7 138.0 140.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 10 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -33. -36. -39. -42. -44. -45. -47. -46. -46. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.1 120.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/27/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##